Previous Week : The Sensex on weekly basis closed up by 523 points to close at 18762.80 levels
The Indian equity benchmark continue to move higher in the previous week to attain their highest closing level in more than 8-weeks as data showing sustained buying by foreign funds over the past few sessions. Nifty moved higher for the first four days of the week only to see Small bouts of profit booking on Friday's trade. Benchmarks indices touched important psychological levels on Friday's opening trade - 5700 on the Nifty and 19,000 on Sensex, but indices could not sustain those levels for long as profit booking set in at higher levels.
  • The Sensex on weekly basis closed up by 523 points or 2.9%, to close at 18762.80 levels where as the S&P CNX Nifty closed up by 156 points, or 2.9%, to close at 5627
  • BHEL, HDFC, HDFC Bank, State Bank of India, Hindalco, ITC and TCS where the major movers during last week trade, where as Bharti Airtel, ACC, Ranbaxy and Reliance Industries are the major draggers during last week trade
  • India's current account deficit for Q4 FY11 was USD 5.4 billion (1.1 % of GDP) against ~USD 10 billion in the previous quarter
  • The impressive 47.1% in the exports In Q4 FY11 and a slower 27.4% growth in imports kept trade deficit in check
  • For FY11, current account deficit was 2.6% of GDP (2.8% in FY10). Meanwhile, core sector grew 5.4% in month of May (4.6% growth in April)
  • India's food inflation for the week ended June 18 slowed to 7.78% on week on week basis lowest in six weeks (9.13% for the week ended June 11) while the fuel price index increased to 12.98 % (12.84% last week)
  • Nymex crude increased by 4.6% on weekly basis to close at $ 94.81 / barrel (on Thursday) on lower than expected inventory data in US
  • The week witnessed slightly positive economic data amidst volatile home sales index in US
  • A separate report from the Commerce Department showed that US GDP grew by 1.9% in the first quarter
  • New orders for durable goods rose by 1.9% in May following a revised 2.7% drop in April
  • On the economic front, the US commerce depart released a report that shows that personal income rose by 0.3% in May, matching the downwardly revised increase reported for April
  • It further informed that personal spending edged up by less than 0.1% in May compared to a downwardly revised 0.3% increase in the previous month. According to reports, the home sales index rose by 8.2% in May following a revised 11.3% drop in April
  • The gain in the index translates into the strongest monthly increase since last November when the index jumped by 10.6%
  • According to ISM-Chicago, its business barometer surged to 61.1 in June from 56.6 in May, with a reading above 50 indicating an increase in activity
  • On the economic front, initial claims for US unemployment benefits fell by 1,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 428,000
  • During the week, Greek parliament approved the five-year austerity package translating into reducing the risk of a Greek default in the short-term and also opens the door to a new bailout from the European Union and the IMF
  • German banks agreed in principle to roll over ~US$10 billion in Greek debt by accepting longer maturities for bonds that currently are due by 2014
  • Rating agency Moody's have placed the long-term debt and deposit ratings of 16 Italian banks and two Italian government-related financial institutions on review for possible downgrade

Week Ahead : Nifty in the coming week will find stiff resistance in the zone of 5710-5750
Bullish Hammer candlestick pattern on the Nifty weekly chart as discussed during last week report did have its impact as the Nifty managed to close almost 3% up on weekly basis. The current up move on Friday's trade has tested the supply line joining the high of Nov. 2010 (6335), Jan. 2011 (6181) and Apr. 2011 (5944) which is placed at 5710 levels. Nifty in the coming week will find stiff resistance in the zone of 5710-5750 marked by the above trendline and the 200 days SMA, only a closing above the range the market can see further upside and can test 5900 in the medium term.

On the downside crucial support comes around 5505 and 5450 levels which are the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the recent rally from 5195 to 5705 levels, sustaining above this crucial support level the structure continues to remain positive
  • In the month of June FIIs were net buyers to the tune of 2662 crore while domestic institutions were net sellers to the tune of 101 crore (provisional data)
  • Amongst the key data globally would be US factory orders, US jobless claims, US unemployment rate, European monetary union GDP (Q1) and ECB interest rate decision consumer confidence
  • Amongst the key data to watch out next week would be, Cement dispatch numbers and weekly inflation