Previous Week : On a week-on-week basis, the Sensex was up by 30 points
Indian equities traded in a narrow range for the week. It closed in red for three out of five trading sessions during the week. Benchmark indexes moved higher on the first day of the week, but faced overhead supply at higher levels. They traded in a narrow range for the next three days and finally gave away almost all its gain on Fridays trade, to close almost flat week on week basis
  • On a week-on-week basis, the Sensex was up by 30 points or 0.1%, to close at 19451 levels
  • The S&P CNX Nifty also closed in the green up by 15 points, or 0.2%, to close at 5842 for the week
  • Broader Market outperformed the benchmark index as BSE Midcap was up by 2.73% and BSE Small cap index was up by almost 5%
  • Provisional results by BHEL exceeded street estimates, while NTPC nos were in line with expectation
  • Food inflation fell to a four-month low of 9.18% for the week ended March 26, 2011 (9.5% last week). However, rising input costs for manufactured products may keep overall inflation at elevated levels
  • Overall inflation rose to 8.31% in February from 8.23% a month ago
  • Crude prices have risen in this week on account of levels unrest in MENA region (especially in Libya). During the week, Brent crude rose above $ 120 a barrel while Nymex crude rose above $108/ barrel
  • ECB raised interest rates by 25 bps for the first time since 2008. Portugal became 3rd nation in EU to ask for the bail out
  • Earlier in the week, S&P downgraded Portugal rating to junk status
  • While Spain, successfully sold $ 5.92 bn 3 year bond offering at an average yield of 3.568 %. In the week, China hiked interest rates by 25 bps

Week Ahead : Infosys and Essar Oil to declare their Q4 numbers in the coming week
The Nifty after the strong rally from the levels of 5200 to 5900 is showing signs of fatigue and strong resistance at higher levels around 5900-5950 levels. As expected in the last report Benchmark Index traded in a range while the Mid Cap and Small cap index outperformed, the same trend may continue in the coming week. In the month of April till date, FII have net buyers to the tune of 2,492 crores (all the trading sessions) while domestic funds are net sellers to the tune of 2,074 crores (provisional data).
  • Among the key global data to watch for in next week is US trade balance, US retail sales ex- Autos, Business inventories, produce price index consumer credit ratings, US housing starts, European monetary union industrial production
  • Infosys and Essar Oil will declare their Q4 numbers in the coming week that may decide the trend of the market in the coming week
  • Overall short term trend continues to remain positive as long as Nifty sustaining above the range of 5600-5650, where it has crucial support from the 200 days EMA which is placed at 5610 levels and also coincides with the 50% retracement of the recent rally from 5350 to 5944
  • Where as immediate support comes at 5720 levels from the trendline joining the high of 4th February 2011 (5556) and 18 February 2011 (5599)
  • On the Higher side current week high of 5944 is the immediate resistance, sustaining above which on closing basis Nifty can test levels of 6050 during the coming week

Source: ICICIdirect