Previous Week : Hero Honda was the major gainer during last week trade with a gain of more than 10%
Indian equities traded with high volatility during last week trade. While short covering on Wednesday saw Nifty gaining more than 2%. Infosys disappointing earnings per share guidance for FY12 and spike up in inflation numbers saw the benchmark indices closing flat week on week basis.
  • On a week-on-week basis, the Sensex was down by 65 points or 0.3%, to close at 19386 levels whereas the S&P CNX Nifty closed in the red down by 18 points, or 0.3%, to close at 5824 for the week
  • Hero Honda was the major gainer during last week trade with a gain of more than 10% week on week basis, where as Infosys was the major loser with a loss of more than 7% on week on week basis
  • Infosys Q4 FY11 numbers were more or less in line with street estimates but the company gave a tepid guidance for FY12 (123 - 128 v/s consensus estimates of 134-137 ) resulting in sharp correction in the stock. Amongst mid cap companies DCB posted numbers beating street estimates
  • IIP numbers for the Month of February came in 3.6% (Street Estimates: 4.88%). IIP numbers for the month of January were revised to 3.9 %from 3.7% the cumulative growth for the period April- February, 2010-11 stands at 7.8%
  • Food inflation fell to a four-month low of 8.28 % for the week ended April 2 (9.18% last week). Primary article inflation index at Inflation for the month of March came in 8.98% (Street estimates: 8.38%) versus 8.31% in February
  • Crude prices have decline for the week by ~ 4-5 % on week on week basis on account of peace talk by Gaddafi
  • On the economic front, a report showed that the trade deficit narrowed to $45.8 billion in February from a revised $47 billion in January
  • The disappointing results from Alcoa contributed to notable weakness among resource stocks, which were also dragged lower amid sharp drops in commodities prices
  • The US initial jobless claims rose by 27,000 to 412,000 from the previous weeks revised figure of 385,000
  • The Labour department said its producer price index rose by 0.7% in March following a 1.6% increase in February

Week Ahead : Nifty has immediate support at the 5735 levels
The Nifty at current level is showing signs of indecision as its trading volatile in a wide 200 points range. The market direction in the coming week is going to be determined by the Q4 FY 11 results. In the month of April till date, FII have net buyers to the tune of 2,211 crores while domestic funds are net sellers to the tune of 1,944 crores (provisional data).
  • Among the key global data to watch for in next week is US building permits, US housing starts, US existing home sales, European monetary union purchasing manager index
  • Earnings season will pick up next week with large caps like TCS, HCL Tech, JSPL and HDFC Bank declaring the Q4 FY11 numbers. Amongst the mid caps, Indusind Bank and Persistent Systems will report their numbers
  • Nifty on the weekly chart has formed a Doji candlestick pattern suggesting indecision at current level, and only breakout from the recent trading range of 5730-5945 will determine further course of action
  • Nifty has immediate support at the 5735 levels which is the previous week low and also coincides with the trendline support joining the high of February 4, 2011 (5556) and February 18, 2011 (5599)
  • Breaching below the low of 5735, the index can test 5620 levels where it has support from the 200 days EMA
  • On the Higher side previous two week high in the range of 5925-5945 is the immediate resistance, sustaining above which on closing basis Nifty can test levels of 6050 during the coming week

Source: ICICIdirect