Previous Week : BSE Sensex closed at 18835.77 up by 100 points, while the NSE Nifty closed at 5682.55, up by 31.20 points
The Indian equity benchmarks traded with high volatility in a narrow range during previous week. Nifty during previous truncated week traded in a 100 points range oscillating between gains and losses. The benchmark indices started the week on positive note on Monday morning but fresh trouble brewing on the political front once again spooked investor's sentiment as the Nifty faced stiff resistance around 5700 levels. The index on the last two trading days of the week bounced back taking support near the 200 days SMA which is currently placed at 5627 levels.
  • The 30 share BSE Sensex closed at 18835.77 up by 100 points or 0.5%, while the NSE Nifty closed at 5682.55, up by 31.20 points or 0.55%, week on week basis
  • ONGC, HDFC, HDFC bank, Coal India, HCL Tech, Hindustan Unilever and TCS were the major gainers in the index where as Hero Motocorp, L&T, Reliance Industries, Reliance Infra and Tata Steel were the key draggers amongst Nifty constituents
  • Indian shares started their week by falling to their lowest close in four months over worries that other allies would remove support from the ruling coalition after the DMK party's withdrawal last week
  • Throughout the latter part of the week, the domestic markets witnessed significant volatility. The markets are scheduled to be closed on Wednesday and Friday on account of "Holi" and "Good Friday" respectively.

Week Ahead : Domestic markets would look for HSBC market manufacturing and services PMI data
Nifty on the weekly chart has formed a small real bodied candle with a long lower shadow resembling a bullish hammer like candle around the 200 days SMA. It shows intent to hold the 200 DMA support. However, strength and close above the candle's high (5718) along with a noticeable improvement in the market breadth would be required to generate a positive follow through, failing which the action will remain choppy.
  • The index is seen hovering just above its 200 DMA (5627) in the last couple of sessions with the oversold nature of intraday momentum oscillators and minor positive divergence on daily RSI is contributing towards efforts to hold the long term moving average
  • A sustained breach of the long term moving average on a closing basis would lead to capitulation and accentuate declines towards the 5550-5500 region in the coming week, where the Nifty has major support from the November 2012 low at 5548 and the upper band of the major rising gap area (5526-5447) formed in mid-September 2012 at 5526 Around 5520 levels, the current down move from 5971 region would also achieve price equality with the first down leg from 6111 to 5663. This makes the 5550-5500 region a crucial support to watch out in the short-term
  • Pullback attempts from current levels are likely to see the index face a stiff resistance around the 5780-5830 area being the 50% and 61.8% retracement of the current down move (5970-5605)
  • The domestic markets would be looking out for HSBC market manufacturing and services PMI data in the coming week
  • Overseas, markets would be looking out for trade balance, MBA Mortgage applications, initial jobless claims and ISM manufacturing data in the US and interest rate decision and PMI manufacturing data in the Eurozone