Previous Week : BSE Sensex closed at 17,158.44 down by 55.26 points, while the NSE Nifty closed at 5205.10 down by 22.15 points
Key benchmark indices traded in a narrow range during previous week's trade with high volatility. Lower-than-expected Inflation data for June announced during Monday's session failed to cheer the Street. Nifty started the week on a bearish note testing crucial support area of 5150-5170 during mid-week. The pullback from the support area was short lived as the up move fizzled out by the end of the week with the index closing the week near 5200 levels.
  • The 30 share BSE Sensex closed at 17,158.44 down by 55.26 points or 0.32%, while the NSE Nifty closed at 5205.10 down by 22.15 points or 0.42% week on week basis
  • State Bank of India, Bank of Baroda, Tata Motors, Maruti, Reliance Infrastructure and Kotak Mahindra Bank were the major draggers in the index whereas Cairn India and Bajaj Auto were the major gainers in the index
  • The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) in June 2012 surprised positively by plummeting 7.25% vs market expectation of ~7.62%
  • Primary articles inflation continues to be in double digits while fuel came in lower at 10.74% against 11.53% (May 2012). Manufactured goods stayed flat at 5%
  • Core inflation was slightly higher at 4.89%. All India general CPI (combined) came in a tad lower at 10.02% for June 2012 as compared to 10.36% for May 2012
  • Bajaj Auto and HeroMoto Corp's results were slightly below our estimates. In the banking space, Axis Bank's PAT & NII were in line, however asset quality deteriorated, while Kotak Mahindra Bank's results were below estimates
  • Nymex crude closed at $92.66/barrel increasing 7.6% on a weekly basis (as on Thursday)

Week Ahead : In the month of July, FIIs were net buyers to the tune of INR 8903 crore while DIIs were the net sellers to the tune of INR 4324 crore
Nifty on the weekly chart formed a small bodied bearish candle with shadows in either direction. As indicated earlier, the Nifty found cushion precisely near the 5160 area and reversed from thereon in last Wednesday's trade. The confluence of the 50 day EMA and 200 day EMA at 5155/5160 and the recent break-out area at 5150 makes this region a key level to watch out in the immediate short term. Further weakness will be confirmed only on a sustained violation of 5150.This may lead to further retracement of the June-July rally, which projects major support around 5050-5000 being the 50% and 61.8% retracement levels coinciding with a cluster of swing lows during June 2012.
  • The Nifty appear to be facing resistance near the recent bearish gap area of 5260-5300 levels
  • Successfully closing the bearish gap area in the coming sessions will indicate that bulls still remain firmly in control and provide the necessary impetus for further upsides till 5450-5500 regions in the near term
  • Lack of any directional triggers may see the index spending some time between the key pivotals of 5150-5300 in the short-term
  • In the month of July (till July 19, 2012), FIIs were net buyers to the tune of 8903 crore while DIIs were the net sellers to the tune of 4324 crore
  • Key data/events to watch globally would be Eurozone and US PMI manufacturing, US House Price Index (M-o-M), MBA Mortgage Applications, Crude Oil Inventory, US Initial Jobless Claims and US Q2 GDP
  • Key results to watch out next week would be HUL, L&T, Wipro, Sterlite Industries and Punjab National Bank