Previous Week : BSE down by 538 points; market plunges to 16 week low
  • Domestic equity benchmarks took a big knock during last week trade as the benchmark indices plunged to a 16 week low. The Nifty started the week with a gap down on Monday's trade but managed to recover all its losses on Monday's trade itself.
  • Index faced heavy selling pressure at higher levels near the 200 days SMA and drifted lower during the week and finally closed well below the physiological 5000 level.
  • The 30 share BSE Sensex settled at 16292.98 down by 538 points or 3.19%, while the NSE Nifty closed at 4928.90, down by 157.95 points or 3.10% for the week.
  • The RBI asked all foreign exchange earners, including exporters, to convert 50 percent of their foreign exchange holdings into rupees within two weeks and said that exporters can henceforth access the forex market for buying dollars only after they have utilized the balance in their Export Earnings Foreign Currency (EEFC) accounts. IIP for the month of March came in negative 3.5 % (Consensus: 1.8%)
  • HDFC, IDFC and Hindalco (standalone) numbers were better than street estimates while NTPC numbers were in line with estimates.
  • India's imports rose 24.3% (YoY basis) to $ 42.6 billion while exports fell 5.7% to $28.7 billion for the month of March. Trade deficit was $13.9 billion.
  • Nymex crude closed at US$97/ barrel declining 1.2% on a weekly basis (as on Thursday).

Week Ahead : Nifty likely to face hurdle in the range of 5125 - 5160 levels
  • Nifty after breaching of the last two months trading range has struggled to move past the 200 DMA (5103) during last week trade. The Nifty drifted lower after testing the 200 days SMA on Tuesday's trade. The corrective price action may continue until we see a faster retracement of the recent falls and a breach of the lower peaks and troughs formations.
  • Nifty has closed below the 61.8% retracement level (4950) of the December-February rally. In the process, it has also filled the previous rising gap area of 4980 formed on January 19, 2012. Sustenance below 4950 levels in the coming sessions will see the index eventually heading for a deeper retracement of the January-February rally to the extent of 70-75%, which projects major support near 4850-4800 area.
  • On the higher side the Nifty will face major hurdle in the range of 5125 - 5160 levels which is the previous week high and the recent support area as the said support is likely to reverse its role as a resistance.
  • In India, events to watch would be monthly WPI. Key results to watch out next week would be Capital goods major L & T, Bajaj Auto, SBI, Tata Steel and Coal India.