Previous Week : Sensex settled at 17134.25, while the NSE Nifty closed at 5190.60
Benchmark indices recovered from the mid-week jolt after ratings agency S&P revised India's outlook to negative from stable. The benchmark indices continued to trade in a broader range with high volatility. The Nifty gave up all its previous week gains on the very first day of the week itself and then traded in narrow choppy range for the rest of the week. It even witnessed lacklustre trades on the expiry session of April series derivative contracts.
  • The BSE Sensex settled at 17134.25 down by 239.59 points or 1.4%, while the NSE Nifty closed at 5190.60, down by 100.25 points or 1.9% for the week
  • Cement, Power, Telecom, Infrastructure, Capital Goods, Realty and Banking stocks were major draggers in the index during previous week. TCS was the only index stock which bucked the trend after its stellar Q4FY12 numbers and closed the week with healthy gains of more then 10% on weekly basis
  • Standard and Poor's downgraded India's long term rating outlook to 'negative' from 'stable' citing the worsening fiscal situation and political constraint for pursuing economic reforms
  • Metal companies Sterlite and Sesa Goa numbers were above our expectations
  • Tech major TCS delivered a stellar set of numbers while Wipro announced weak Q4FY12 numbers and the company gave tepid Q1FY13 revenue growth guidance. Ultratech Cement came out with numbers that topped analyst estimates
  • Nymex crude closed at US$104/ barrel gaining 1.2% on a weekly basis (as on Thursday)

Week Ahead - FIIs were net sellers to the tune of 1767 crore
Over the past few weeks, the index movement has been broadly ranged between the key pivotal of 5350 and 5135. The 200 DMA (Simple Moving Average) currently around 5130 has provided cushion on the downside in the whole corrective decline since February 2012 highs. Faltering below the 200 DMA on a sustained closing basis may lead to deeper retracement of the previous rally opening up downsides towards 5080-4950 being the 50% and 61.8% retracements of rally from 4531 to 5629 levels.
  • The corrective price action may continue until we see a faster retracement of the falls and a breach of the lower top and bottom formations
  • On the higher side 5250 will act as an immediate hurdle being the confluence of 21 and 50 days EMA (Exponential Moving Average). A sustained closing above 5250 will lead to a test of the upper band of the recent trading range around 5350 levels
  • In April 2012, (till April 26, 2012), FIIs were net sellers to the tune of 1767 crore while DIIs were net buyer to the tune 888 crore (provisional data)
  • Key data to watch globally would be personal income, ISM Manufacturing, factory orders, unemployment rate and Euro zone GDP
  • In India, events to watch would be Export import data for the month of March. Key results to watch out next week would be Bank of India, Oriental of Commerce, HUL, Bharti Airtel, Bank of Baroda and Grasim Industries