Weekly E-Magazine : Yearly lows breached, markets in choppy waters

Previous Week : Sensex was down by 722 points for the week to settle at 15,491.35

Key benchmark indices closed the week on extreme bearish note closing at a 25 months low. In the process Nifty has closed below the critical 4700-mark for the first time since November 3, 2009. Nifty started the week on a bearish note and kept on dragging lower as the week progressed and finally closed near the low point of the week. The selling got intensified in the second half of trade on Friday as Nifty crumbled more than 150 points on the last two hours of trade.

• The Sensex was down by 722 points or 4.5% for the week to settle at 15,491.35 whereas the Nifty closed at 4651.60, down by 215.10 points or 4.50%
• All the sectoral indices closed in the red with Banking, Capital Goods, Real Estate and Metals stock trembling close to their 52 week lows
• The RBI in its policy meet kept all the key rates unchanged and indicated further rate hikes might not be warranted. In view of the moderating growth momentum this guidance is being reiterated. From here on, monetary policy actions are likely to turn the cycle, in response to tepid growth
• Inflation (WPI ) for the month of November stood at 9.11% against 9.73% in October. However, for the month of September inflation was revised upwards to 10%
• Nymex crude declined to $ 94/ barrel on weekly basis (down 5.5% on Thursday) on Eurozone worries
• US Data showed weekly applications for unemployment fell to a 3-1/2 year low, while a gauge of New York State manufacturing activity rose to its highest level since May and another measure of factory activity in the mid-Atlantic region showed a surge in new orders
• Moody's and Fitch commented that the solution offered by the recently held Euro Summit offers few new measures and, therefore, does not change their analysis of the Euro zone contagion

Week Ahead - India to watach for weekly inflation data next week

Equity benchmarks were reeling under heavy selling pressure till the final hour of trade on Friday as bears dragged the Nifty to its 52 week low. Nifty kept on forming lower top and lower bottom in the hourly chart through out the week.

• Nifty has re-visited the 4700 levels for the fourth time in last five months.This is for the first time it has closed below the critical level
• A sustained trading below the 4700 mark would therefore be a prerequisite for the bears to stamp their authority and drag the index towards 4500-4400 region
• On the higher side Friday's high of 4818 is seen as immediate critical resistance only sustaining above this level it can test the bearish gap down area of December 9 at 4920 level
• In the month of December (December 15) FIIs have been net sellers to the tune of 109 crores while DIIs have bought shares worth 91 crores
• Key data to watch globally would be US MBA mortgage applications, Initial Jobless claims, and MBA mortgage application, US GDP
• In India, next week the key data to watch would be weekly inflation