commodity news

The British bank maintains its average silver price forecast for 2013 at $32 an ounce and 2014 at $28/oz. silver surplus will narrow to 155 million ounces in 2012, but will widen again in 2013 to 175 million ounce.

Yeah so i think it would not be the right time to invest in silver commodity or if you then sell your shares before 2013.

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Gold may be under pressure after US elections.

Gold prices are trading in a range, but after the U.S. elections, news flow for the rest of the year could be moderately negative for gold which would result in weaker prices.
“Once US elections are over, the market may begin to focus on the fiscal cliff (expiry of Bush tax cuts) and/or the debt ceiling, which could be hit early next year. These issues, combined with the possibility of renewed concerns regarding the eurozone, particularly Greece and Spain, and the potential for further liquidity-related risk aversion is quite high in our view. This in turn would ordinarily lead to some pressure on the gold price,”.

Gold prices are trading in a range, but after the U.S. elections, news flow for the rest of the year could be moderately negative for gold which would result in weaker prices.
“Once US elections are over, the market may begin to focus on the fiscal cliff (expiry of Bush tax cuts) and/or the debt ceiling, which could be hit early next year. These issues, combined with the possibility of renewed concerns regarding the eurozone, particularly Greece and Spain, and the potential for further liquidity-related risk aversion is quite high in our view. This in turn would ordinarily lead to some pressure on the gold price,”.
Offsetting that is the trend of central bank buying, they add. “We see the $1,700 an ounce or just below as just such a level where opportunistic and longer-term buying is likely to emerge,”

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Highly optimistic Gold bulls,not so favourable markets.

Gold bulls are still optimistic that the yellow metal will climb $2000/Oz levels and above by this year end, some are more optimistic giving targets of $2500 and above to be achieved some time next year. There is no harm in giving optimistic forecasts, however, one should not forget the ground realities: prime among them is the declining demand to invest in gold because of higher prices. If gold prices are to climb over $2000 levels which it has never done so far then there should be sharp increase in demand or in economic theory terms a shift towards right in the demand curve (as seen below). In effect this means that gold demand has to go up irrespective of the prices and at each price levels people should start buying further fuelling a higher demand. This seems quite unlikely as can be seen from the sharp fall in demand in the first two quarters in 2012 in India on doubling of import tax and additional excise duty on jewellery. In a way it was India Government decision to curb gold consumption that has helped keep global demand for gold and prices in check. China witnessed a huge demand growth in 2011, according to World Gold Council data but subsequently in the first three quarters of 2012, demand is not so robust.

MCX GOLD Technical Trend

MCX GOLD last week showed choppy movements from last two sessions and took reversal from 38.2% retracement and it is consolidating around trend line. Now if it gives closing below 31000 then bearish rally is expected towards the level of 30500. On other hand 31500 is seen as strong resistance for it only above this some upward movement is expected.

Strategy

Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to buy above 31500 for the targets of 31900-32400 with stop loss of 30900.