Previous Week : BSE Sensex closed at 19468.15 down by 16 points, while the NSE Nifty closed at 5887.40, down by 0.3%
The Indian equity benchmark traded with high volatility during previous week trade as alternate bouts of buying and selling activity kept traders on their toes. Nifty traded in a 100 points range oscillating between gains and losses during the week to finally close marginally in the red. The broader markets continued to bleed heavily as the BSE midcap and small cap indices tumbled by 1.90% and 3.70%, respectively.
  • The 30 share BSE Sensex closed at 19468.15 down by 16 points or 0.1%, while the NSE Nifty closed at 5887.40, down by 16 points or 0.3%, week on week basis
  • Sun Pharma, Tata Motors, HDFC Bank, HCL Technology, ONGC and Coal India were the major gainers in the index where as Maruti, L&T, Power Grid, Ranbaxy, State Bank of India, Tata Steel and Jindal Steel & Power were the key draggers amongst Nifty constituents
  • The market sentiments during the weak were driven by the quarterly results of many of the Sensex companies and the WPI data which released later during the week
  • The expectations from budget 2013 which is due on February 28 also influenced the sentiments on the street. Earlier during the week the market was uncertain about subsequent rate cuts after industrial output unexpectedly contracted in December, while January CPI remained above 10%. Later the WPI data came in at 6.62% in January which was lower than expected
  • The results announced by the Sensex companies were largely mixed with Tata Motors, Tata Steel, SBI and Dr Reddy falling below estimates while Coal India, ONGC and GAIL reported better than expected results.

Week Ahead : DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 7435 crore
Nifty on the weekly chart has formed a small bearish candle with a sizable long upper shadow, signifying selling pressure at higher levels. The index failed to sustain previous week pullback attempt beyond a couple of sessions amid lack of participation from the broader markets.
  • The sustainability of pullback attempts in the short-term will remain susceptible until we see a faster retracement of the current fall along with an improvement in the overall market breadth
  • Failing this, pullback attempts will be subject to fresh round of selling pressure near the 5980-6015 regions being the 50% and 61.8% retracement of the current decline, respectively. Only a strong close above 6020 with significant improvement in overall market breadth will bring the bulls back in the reckoning
  • From a medium-term perspective, the 5800-5830 region remains a key support for the index, being the 50% retracement level of the entire rally from November 2012 low of 5548 to recent high of 6111
  • In the entire up move since June 2012 lows, each up-leg has been retraced by maximum 50%. Therefore, we believe a normal round of profit booking would see the index find cushion around the 5830-5800 region. Corrections lasting beyond 5800 may threaten to derail the medium term uptrend
  • In the month of February (till February 14), FIIs were net buyers to the tune of 8287 crore while DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 7435 crore
  • Overseas, key data/events in the coming week include MBA Mortgage applications, CPI and initial jobless claims in the US, while the European commission is expected to release its economic growth forecast